A report into the impact of Scottish
independence by one of the world’s leading banks has expressed a number of
concerns. Deutsche Bank’s report on separation said that should there be a Yes
vote in September there is a risk of “capital flight” as individuals and
businesses move their money out of Edinburgh. The document, ‘Scotland: The
independence question’, stated uncertainty over currency and the question of
whether or not a separate Scotland would take its fair share of national debt
could lead to the financial exodus.
Deutsche Bank added in its findings that
Scotland’s rate of borrowing would be higher if it broke away from the rest of
the UK, and cast further doubt about a newly independent state gaining
automatic EU admission. And whatever currency option was settled on, the report
said, it was likely some form of “sterlingisation” would have to occur as a
“stop gap”. In a stern warning, economists at the bank said if the Scottish
Government had got it wrong on its widely disputed oil projections, “the fiscal
position could look more precarious than envisaged by authorities”.
Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Gavin
Brown MSP said: “This is yet another highly respected international
organisation raising some very serious questions for the SNP’s case for independence.
The Scottish Government cannot resort to its usual tactic of accusing anyone
who questions its plans as scaremongering or lacking impartiality. Deutsche
Bank is a major firm with detailed knowledge of how finance works, and is
completely detached from the independence debate.
“It is now incumbent on the Scottish
Government to reflect carefully on these points and come up with some answers.
The report states it is likely a separate Scotland would have higher borrowing
rates, an issue the SNP has been extremely vague on.
“People and businesses will also want to hear
answers from the Scottish Government on the risk of capital flight should
Scotland breakaway from the rest of the UK.”
